Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

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videocrazy
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by videocrazy »

Sure, let's hear them!


...Even though they'll likely point out my logical fallacies.
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Regy Rusty
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by Regy Rusty »

Righto! So, here's what went down:

Scribbles, was Layton, as we all now know. She and AS were in contact with each other from near the start of the game, and she told him her role (as a side note, in this round in particular this was an incredibly foolish move. Even if you could thoroughly trust that AS was a vanilla townie, AT ANY TIME he could have been recruited to a Mafia and then immediately relinquished his information. In this round in particular the only ones roles could trust were other roles).

At some point, Scribbles let slip to AS that OMG was Luke. Anyway, in addition, Scribbles used her investigation on Night 0 to investigate videocrazy, who turned up as a vanilla townie. Thus, fairly early in the game, all four of these people were "allied" with each other, and the two who weren't Layton and Luke knew who the two townie roles were. As far as VC could have known, AS was another vanilla townie like himself.

Now then, on Night 1, Scribbles is hit by the Heartless. Now, under normal circumstances, this would mean that someone in the position of OMG (a role) would now be suspicious of AS and VC (two supposedly vanilla townies) of being members of the Heartless Mafia. HOWEVER, the same night, Team Rocket hit Forcemaster-Maleficent and The Joker "hit" (for as far as it was known at the time the Joker actually specified a hit, rather than had it as part of the role's inherent power) Tails-Pete. Thus, the entire Heartless Mafia was exposed and destroyed.

Effectively, what this did was PROVE that VC and AS had nothing to do with Scribbles' death. They could not have been Heartless, since they were dead, and thus Scribbles death had to have been a coincidence. OMG saw this. AS KNEW it to be true (as of course, he actually WAS Mafia). VC however... did not.

Thus, on Day 2, VC worked behind the scenes attempting to lead to AS's lynch. His argument was that AS could have been in Team Rocket or the Joker himself, and passed Scribbles' identity on to the Heartless. The problem with this, is that it is completely impossible. What VC's logic required was a number of incredibly unlikely possibilities all coming together at once:

1. AS had to be in Team Rocket or the Joker who had managed to convince Scribbles he was trustworthy. (By chance, in the end this turned out to be true, but it was only by chance, as I shall show momentarily.)

2. AS had SOMEHOW managed to find the LEADER OF A RIVAL FACTION and tell them sensitive information about Scribbles' role.

3. AS had done this in such a way that the rival faction would not think that HE needed to be killed.

4. And finally, AS had killed a member of this Mafia faction.

All of this put together creates an impossible situation. This argument can't be used to prove that AS is an enemy of the town. Couple this, with OMG's revelation that Caitlin was the Joker, and chasing down and lynching AS based solely on this reasoning becomes a terribly risky move. Had fate (or rather Geno XD) rolled things differently, AS could have been a normal townie and all the situations presented in this argument would have been exactly the same. Thus, VC would have led to the lynch of an ordinary townie, while protecting the Joker from being lynched, thus ensuring that suspicion would fall on him next, and hastening the town's demise.

As it turned out, because this is indeed an unpredictable game where anything can happen, there was no ACTUAL impact for good or bad in these actions. That is, VC DID manage to get a Mafian lynched and the Town STILL lost. But the point is, that when constructing an argument against someone, it's important to make sure that you're doing something that makes sense.

Relying on gut or instinct is an entirely different thing (though often quite as valid) and so I won't discuss that here.

Ok, that's about it! :D
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videocrazy
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by videocrazy »

As I said, some of it was information, most of it was instinct. But thanks for pointing that out, Regy! :D
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by Zeroes »

What made you think that AS was Mafia? And how did you get everyone to vote for him?
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by Advance Stratagist »

Actually I don't think from what he told me, he thought I told the KH Mafia.

I think his though process was that we didn't kill scribbles because we knew that scribbles was layton, and that we didn't kill scribbles because we assumed KH would do it as well, and thus went after someone else.... which in the end makes about as much sense to me. I'm still trying to understand how that would make sense.
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by videocrazy »

Well, as Regy said, I figured, there were three people who knew of Scribs identity, Cracker, AS, and I. I knew I wasn't mafia, and as Scribs told me who Cracker was, I knew he wasn't either. Someone, I can't remember who, also pointed out the "mafia who hit scribs died" thing, but I had a counterargument for that, which you also adressed. Although, the situation you presented wasn't exactly impossible, as what happened when I was joking around with force. AS COULD have subtly mentioned he knew Layton to Force, if he found out who it was.

But, as my instinct was right last round (Anti, Aoshi, although I never acted on him, and to a lesser extent, Claizen, although tv was completely off my radar) and after Ghaleon's speech last round, I decided to start trusting my instinct, whereas whenever I try logic associations, I got some... terrible results (Geno and solo, from last round), so I went with my instinct, and what I believed in.

As for how, pre O.G. reveal, Nat has a long story, and I posted it before, if you want it, ask her. One thing I can say, she also thought it was me or AS, so that helped. Ryu was because of the vote on him near the end of the phase change made by AS, and I think Nat and Ryu were in an alliance, and Kagami, I explained it, and told her I had a couple people backing me up, not saying who, to be safe. After O.G.'s reveal, I asked Nat to stay with me, and she did, probably thinking if AS wasn't mafia, I would be, and helped me get Ryu to stay on track, too. I told Kagami that I had kept votes off her, and to stick to the plan. Hey, I had to use what I could. There was less than 5 minutes before the phase change.

Speaking of sticking to plans, this would have gone a whole lot easier if Cracker kept to the plan of investigating AS, this would have gone a whole lot smoother, but 45 minutes to the phase change, he changed it to Fuzz.

Edit: Cut! Because of scribs antics, I figured a smart mafia would AVOID hitting scribs, because two hits cancelled each other out. Of course, it's a WIFOM, cause the other mafia could do the same, but apparently not, from the Day 1 results.
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by NatLazy »

videocrazy wrote: As for how, pre O.G. reveal, Nat has a long story, and I posted it before, if you want it, ask her. One thing I can say, she also thought it was me or AS, so that helped. Ryu was because of the vote on him near the end of the phase change made by AS, and I think Nat and Ryu were in an alliance, and Kagami, I explained it, and told her I had a couple people backing me up, not saying who, to be safe. After O.G.'s reveal, I asked Nat to stay with me, and she did, probably thinking if AS wasn't mafia, I would be, and helped me get Ryu to stay on track, too. I told Kagami that I had kept votes off her, and to stick to the plan. Hey, I had to use what I could. There was less than 5 minutes before the phase change.
I had forgotten about that story of why I trusted you honestly... But If you'll recall, Itsaqua is in fact the one who got my suspicion off of you and onto AS.
I never had an alliance with Ryu, at least I never considered it an alliance. I just asked him to vote for AS and he did it. I'm not sure why Ryu trusted me though... Meh, whatever.
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by atomicscribble »

I love being described as having antics. Ftw.

I dunno, AS just has a tendency to be annoyingly crafty in-game, which is why I shouldn't have loaded all my trust in his hands. In all reality, O.G. and I were supposed to be very close with each other, but basically, he went with what I said, and I with what he said. There wasn't much of an exchanging of ideas, in the end: we fed off each other's suspicions and trusts, therefore creating the situation you see before you.

Telling AS and Video got two different reactions entirely:

Me: I'm Layton.
AS: Oh, okay. That's good.

Me: I'm Layton.
Video: Really? I was right! Investigate (insert player here).

Not a tip-off, as AS and Video have two different methods of playing and in-game personalities entirely. IMO, anyone who thinks this is a tip-off as to who's who may be reading too far into it.

I tried to keep it very regulated, and as such created a pretty definite list of whodunit if I happened to be taken down. Video ran on this and told me right before I died that he would go after AS. I was strongly against this. It was a 50/50 chance, really, and a risky, but good, move for Video would have been to simply come out and tell everyone that I only told two people who I was, thus creating a strong argument against AS, or even vice-versa from AS to Video.

And, in all honesty, as much as I adore having a role, I feel safer as a vanilla. :)
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by Fuzznerdees »

videocrazy wrote:Speaking of sticking to plans, this would have gone a whole lot easier if Cracker kept to the plan of investigating AS, this would have gone a whole lot smoother, but 45 minutes to the phase change, he changed it to Fuzz.
Y'know, I was wondering about this. lol How come he suddenly switched to me? I mean, I wasn't in contact with really anyone at that point, so to most I seemed to be nilla townie. Of course, that was kind of my plan because I wanted to keep a low profile, but I'm still curious as to why he chose me above AS. Was it BECAUSE I had a low profile?
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by videocrazy »

I'm not sure, myself. I can't remember his reason, if he gave me it, I'll see if I can pull it up from the logs.

Here they are:

ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:06:04 PM): ...You know what?
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:06:08 PM): I don't really suspect AS at all.
videocrazy15 (4:06:21 PM): Please, just keep it there, I'm sure he's non town
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:06:31 PM): Your logic being?
videocrazy15 (4:06:45 PM): look, I already explained it. We've come this far
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:06:52 PM): Explain it again for me.
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:07:09 PM): I've switched it to Fuzz, and it's staying there until you give me a reason.
videocrazy15 (4:07:47 PM): okay. Scribble only told two people who she and you were
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:08:15 PM): Remember, the Heartless killed Scribble. And the entire Heartless faction got killed off last night.
videocrazy15 (4:08:46 PM): Right. Anticipating one faction would kill scribble, AS instead killed someone else, which by luck or skill, was the heartless
videocrazy15 (4:08:55 PM): Same thing went for the other night kill
videocrazy15 (4:09:09 PM): that was just luck that they both died, I believe
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:09:21 PM): Assuming that the Heartless wouldn't do the same thing? That's a bad idea IMO
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:09:33 PM): Could have easily left scribble alive if the Heartless chose not to hit her.
videocrazy15 (4:09:34 PM): Now, if it's NOT AS, then you should be safe this night
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:09:44 PM): And they just so happened to hit Maleficent that night?
videocrazy15 (4:10:02 PM): in which case, i reccommend staying alive until the next night
videocrazy15 (4:10:18 PM): So if you ARE hit, the hit's wasted
videocrazy15 (4:10:31 PM): If it IS AS, then you're getting hit next night anyways
videocrazy15 (4:10:42 PM): So if nothing else, please help me vote out AS
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:10:58 PM): Uh...no. I'm going for people who actually ARE suspicious IMO.
videocrazy15 (4:11:07 PM): Fine
videocrazy15 (4:11:19 PM): But I'm not giving up on this
videocrazy15 (4:11:36 PM): If you don't think AS is suspicious, at least wait till night, then
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:11:40 PM): If you can build an argument against AS and get him lynched, I have no objections
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:11:48 PM): But what you have now doesn't really amount to a case.
videocrazy15 (4:18:05 PM): well, can you at least give me the results when they come in?
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:18:28 PM): Whenever Geno decides to give them to me...
ogcracker@hotmail.co.uk (4:18:35 PM): Apparently I have to wait a little longer.




I had already explained it to him once, and I was a bit miffed he suddenly decided to do that. Notice the time stamp. For me, phase change is 5 PM.
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by itsaqua »

NaturallyLazy wrote: But If you'll recall, Itsaqua is in fact the one who got my suspicion off of you and onto AS.

....
I wasnt even around all day for the day this happend.....
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by NatLazy »

No, you weren't.
You sent me a PM telling me that my case against Karfka was solid-er.
AS was the one who told me the case was weak. video was more supportive.
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by itsaqua »

....
But how would that make you suspicious of AS....
I mean
If he was saying that Karfka wasnt suspcious.. and karfka was actually a townie....... wouldnt I have been the suspcious one
:D
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by EmaTheScienceSkye »

You're just that good.
Your Resident Ema Skye Impersonator.
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Re: Remeniscence: AAO Mafia Round IV

Post by videocrazy »

August 25, 2008

videocrazy15 (7:23:01 PM): And hey, thanks for sticking by me, after what happened last round
NatLazy (7:23:49 PM): Heh, I knew either you or AS was mafiosi.
videocrazy15 (7:24:02 PM): And you didn't think I'd bring it up if I was mafia, right?
NatLazy (7:24:18 PM): Last night, I told two people my idea to vote Karfka...
NatLazy (7:24:33 PM): One was of course you. The other was AS.
NatLazy (7:25:51 PM): He tried telling me it wouldn't work. So I thought either you were trying to throw me off the right track, or this really was a bad idea
NatLazy (7:26:16 PM): So I sent PM's to Two people, to try to find out more.
videocrazy15 (7:26:22 PM): wait, I'm confused
videocrazy15 (7:26:54 PM): NatLazy (7:25:51 PM): He tried telling me it wouldn't work. So I thought either you were trying to throw me off the right track, or this really was a bad idea

That I was trying to throw you off track? And which was the bad idea, the voting for Karfka or AS idea?
NatLazy (7:28:23 PM): I thought you were trying to trip me up, thus making you mafia or AS was trying to get me to not vote for Karfka by telling me it was a bad idea, thus making him mafia.
videocrazy15 (7:28:40 PM): what decided to make you side with me?
NatLazy (7:28:49 PM): The two PM's I sent
NatLazy (7:29:00 PM): One went to Cracker, and he didn't reply
NatLazy (7:29:25 PM): The other went to itsaqua. He sided with you.
videocrazy15 (7:29:46 PM): Really? What did the PM's say, out of curiousity?
NatLazy (7:30:03 PM): That's why I was so mad when Cracker didn't reply by the way
videocrazy15 (7:30:19 PM): You being the original, I was able to say that you helped out, and you helped get others to do the same
videocrazy15 (7:30:24 PM): You literally made this
NatLazy (7:31:29 PM): Uh... which PM? The one I sent to Cracker?
videocrazy15 (7:31:32 PM): Both
videocrazy15 (7:31:51 PM): Sorry for prying, but I'm just naturally curious
NatLazy (7:32:17 PM): I can't say I blame you. Curiosity is good.
videocrazy15 (7:32:30 PM): I was literally sweating back there
videocrazy15 (7:32:44 PM): The whole plan could have been shot if even one person voted if kagami
NatLazy (7:33:32 PM): If Karfka had voted, rather than me chewing him out later... haha...
NatLazy (7:33:54 PM): Anyways. PM to Cracker.
videocrazy15 (7:33:57 PM): Could you explain that?
NatLazy (7:34:06 PM): Hm?
videocrazy15 (7:34:08 PM): I'm a bit busy, so I can't grasp what you're trying to say
videocrazy15 (7:34:15 PM): What was that haha... for?
videocrazy15 (7:34:33 PM): Also, I can't PM Cracker, he's not allowed to talk about the game anymore, he's dead
NatLazy (7:35:01 PM): No, the PM I sent Cracker, you wanted to see it, right?
videocrazy15 (7:35:11 PM): Oh. Yeah
videocrazy15 (7:35:19 PM): You said: Pm to Cracker
NatLazy (7:35:38 PM): Sorry, more of a "NATTY! FOCUS ON THIS!!"
NatLazy (7:36:27 PM): Hi, I realize we've never spoken during this round, but a lot of my other go-tos are kinda dead or I've already spoken to them...

So, okay, I have suspicions on Karfka right now and my other contacts are contradicting each other.
Point is, I need another opinion.
So... my proof.

Back when we were all trying to get tv to prove himself innocent, Karfka came out when tv finally removed his vote from Karfka for the first time (tv would later unvote again for Karfka and revote for Scribbs), but he was kinda nasty about the whole situation...

Karfka wrote:
So what are you gonna do now? Just wait for death? Hope that convinces others not to vote for you... makes sense.
It doesn't make much sense of course, and Scribbles points this out immediately after the post.

Okay, I have more proof, but here's where the road splits. One of my sources tells me that this isn't good enough, and the other thinks it's perfect.
So, your opinion on this matter would be appreciated. Thanks!
videocrazy15 (7:37:47 PM): What did the PM to itsaqua say?
NatLazy (7:38:31 PM): Basically the same, minus the opening sentence about not ever talking prior to sending the PM.


And thanks Nat, for showing me how to get logs.
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